Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
